It may feel like this rainy season in Bali is never-ending, but for those who are already counting down the days until dry season begins, you may need to be careful what you wish for.
Though the rainy season is far from over, forecasters are already predicting that the upcoming dry season could bring on serious droughts in Bali’s top tourism destinations and beyond.
Bali’s currently facing one of the worst rainy seasons in recent history. From fallen trees to landslides to widespread flooding, the impact of the devastation caused by rain, wind, and electrical storms over the last five months is yet to be fully calculated.
Typically, Bali’s rainy season arrives in early November, late October on occasion. But in 2025, the rainy season arrived markedly earlier than usual, with Denpasar and many parts of Badung Regency seeing the worst rainfall in more than 70 years, resulting in life-changing flooding for thousands of people.
In most years, the dry season is officially declared by mid-April. However, it is unclear whether the seasonal changes will impact the start of the drier months. Only last week were all regions of Bali issued with extreme weather warnings, at a time when normally the rain is starting to let up.
Forecasters have shared their initial expectations of when the dry season will arrive, but it feels like anything could still happen. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that most parts of Indonesia will enter the dry season in 2026 earlier than the climatological average.
Forecasters have cited a weak La Niña phenomenon in February 2026, which has now shifted into a neutral phase and has the potential to develop into an El Niño by the middle of the year.
The Head of BMKG, Teuku Faisal Fathani, explained that monitoring of global climate anomalies in the Pacific Ocean shows that the ENSO index is currently at -0.28 or in a neutral condition and is expected to last until June 2026.
However, starting in the middle of the year, the chance of a weak-to-moderate El Niño category reaches 50-60%, meaning drought and extreme dry heat are more likely throughout the second half of the year.
Fathani explained, “Regions predicted to experience an earlier onset of the dry season include most of Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, southern and eastern Kalimantan, most of Sulawesi, Maluku, and parts of Papua.”
Areas predicted to experience the peak of the dry season in July include parts of Sumatra, central and northern Kalimantan, and small parts of Java.
Bali tourists planning on vacationing in the province in August should be aware, the peak of the dry season is predicted to be longer than usual, encompassing central and southern Sumatra, Central and East Java, most of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, all of Bali and Nusa Tenggara, which includes the Gili Islands, Lombok and Labuan Bajo aka Komodo National Park, parts of Maluku and Papua.
These early forecasts are of most significance to farmers across Indonesia who are already being encouraged to adjust planting schedules by choosing plant varieties that are more water-efficient, drought-resistant, and have a shorter harvest period.
Fathani concluded, “All of this predictive information constitutes an early warning that must be immediately followed up with concrete steps (early action) by stakeholders to minimize the risk of drought in Indonesia.”
However, for tourists traveling to Bali and Indonesia more broadly, it is important to have an awareness of the risks of drought and an intense dry season later this year, as well as being aware of the risks of the rainy season, which continues to fall over Bali Province at the moment.
For tourists set to travel to Bali in the peak of the dry season, considerations must be made about access to accommodation with AC, internal travel, and, in some cases, even access to water. For example, the Gili Islands regularly have issues with fresh water supply, which impacts local community members and tourists too.
Here at The Bali Sun, we will continue to bring you the latest travel news to help you make informed decisions about your travel in Bali and around Indonesia, including these all-important weather updates.
It is also possible to check in with the latest forecast and extreme weather warnings via the Bali Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency on Instagram.
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